November auto market shows "production-sales gap": Output hits new high at 3.5 million units, while retail sales drop 8%.

"In November this year, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new historical record," said Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), at a monthly analysis meeting on December 11.

CAAM data show that in November, automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month-on-month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year-on-month, maintaining a positive trend. In the first eleven months, cumulative automobile production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million units, up 11.9% and 11.4% year-on-year respectively.

On the other hand, CPCA data indicate that end retail sales remained sluggish in November, with national passenger vehicle retail sales down 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, reflecting a noticeable weakening in consumer purchasing intent. This "gap between production and sales figures" is not coincidental but rather the result of the interplay between the policy window, market structural transformation, and global competition dynamics.

Production and wholesale surge ahead, but end-user retail shows signs of weakness

In November, CAAM data show that national automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, achieving positive growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, with production hitting a record high.

Behind this achievement is the proactive efforts of automakers to capitalize on the policy window. As the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy is set to expire at the end of the year, companies have generally accelerated production to secure orders and achieve annual targets. Chen Shihua noted that companies maintained a fast supply pace despite the high base, with both passenger and commercial vehicle markets continuing to perform well, especially in terms of strong new energy vehicle production and sales. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 53% for the first time in a single month. Cumulative data show that from January to November, automobile production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million units respectively, an increase of approximately 11.5% year-on-year, making it almost certain that annual figures will set a new historical record.

However, CPCA data show that despite record highs in production and wholesale, end-consumer demand shows signs of cooling. In November, national retail sales of passenger vehicles were 2.225 million units, down 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, remaining "relatively low" for two consecutive months. The gap between production and retail figures has led to increased inventory pressure in the industry. In November, manufacturer inventory increased by 60,000 units, in sharp contrast to the inventory decrease of 220,000 units in the same period last year.

The reasons for the decline in retail sales are multifaceted, including both the fading effects of short-term policies and long-term constraints on consumer expectations. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the CPCA, analyzed that November last year saw a consumption peak stimulated by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, resulting in a high base for the same period this year. In November 2025, the average daily subsidy scale for the "trade-in" policy dropped to 30,000 units, reducing its pulling effect. More importantly, consumers have become more cautious about future economic expectations, with some families postponing car purchase plans while awaiting new policies in 2026, leading to lower-than-expected domestic end-demand.

In terms of energy type, the decline in retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles is more pronounced. In November, retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 900,000 units, down 22% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month. Cumulative retail sales from January to November fell by 6% year-on-year, reflecting an accelerated shift from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, during which a new consumption balance has not yet been fully established.

Exports emerge as key driver, with domestic brands accelerating global expansion

Against the backdrop of weak domestic demand, automobile exports have become the brightest spot supporting overall sales growth and are a core trend consistently highlighted by both the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and the CPCA. CAAM data show that automobile exports reached 728,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, breaking the 700,000-unit mark for the first time. From January to November, cumulative exports reached 6.343 million units, up 18.7% year-on-year, with annual exports expected to approach 7 million units.

Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) also confirm this explosive trend: in November, passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 601,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, setting a new monthly record. More notably, new energy vehicles are playing a key role as growth engines in exports. Data indicate that new energy vehicle exports reached 300,000 units in November, a surge of 2.6 times year-on-year; exports of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers reached 284,000 units, up 243.3% year-on-year. Both sets of data point to the same conclusion: China's new energy vehicles are accelerating their global expansion, with continuously optimized structures.

Particularly notable is the rapid rise of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models in exports. Data show that PHEV exports exceeded 120,000 units in November, with a year-on-year growth rate as high as fourfold. This indicates that in overseas markets, especially in emerging markets where infrastructure is still underdeveloped, PHEV models—combining the driving experience of electric vehicles with the range assurance of fuel vehicles—are gaining favor due to their comprehensive advantages. Export destinations are also becoming increasingly diversified. In addition to the traditional Russian market, countries such as Mexico, Belgium, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil are becoming new growth drivers. Chinese automobile companies are shifting from reliance on a single market to a strategic phase of multi-point global presence.

In this wave of exports, domestic brands are undoubtedly the main force. Both sets of data indicate that in November, Chinese brand passenger vehicles accounted for 71.4% of sales, with their market share continuing to rise. Exports of domestic brands reached 525,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52%. Leading companies such as BYD, Chery, and Geely performed particularly well. In November, BYD exported 128,000 new energy passenger vehicles, while Chery maintained its leading position in total vehicle exports.

This dual benefit of domestic brand growth and global expansion has not only solidified the dominance of Chinese brands in the domestic market but also established a new image of electrification and intelligence worldwide. However, behind the prosperity lie underlying concerns. Cui Dongshu pointed out that in the first ten months of 2025, the automotive industry's sales profit margin was only 4.4%, far below the over 30% margin of upstream raw material industries, highlighting a severe issue of "profit hollowing-out." Amid weak consumption, unreasonable price increases of upstream materials not only dampen end-demand but also undermine the international competitiveness of Chinese automakers.

The Chinese automobile production and sales figures for November 2025 can be seen as a snapshot of the industry's transition. The data show that capacity expansion on the production side, global outreach in exports, and the breakthrough penetration rate of new energy vehicles together constitute the core competitiveness of China's automotive industry. From January to November, automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million units, with exports surpassing 6.3 million units. The annual figures are on track to hit a historic high, essentially securing the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

Policy measures for the coming year are also sending encouraging signals. On December 8, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and plan economic work for 2026, emphasizing the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency. Prior to this, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Supply-Demand Compatibility of Consumer Goods to Further Boost Consumption," aimed at promoting consumption across the whole chain and laying the groundwork for the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

"The guiding principles from relevant meetings and policy documents have sent positive signals, which help boost development confidence, stabilize market expectations for the next year, expand automobile consumption across the entire industry chain, and lay a solid foundation for a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan," said Chen Shihua.